Market Update - April 2018

This week in real estate I'm gonna talk about what happened in April of 2018. I also want to talk a little bit about the seasonality of real estate and what a buyer or a seller should think about. The market below $500,000 in Maricopa County continues to favor sellers. I know that's not a surprise to any of you that are out there looking for a house. Between 500,000 and a million dollars, however, we're seeing inventory continue to fall and that also,means that our prices are starting to rise. We're seeing competition. As much a competition sometimes as in the lower price ranges. Demand is very strong over a million. We've been waiting for that for a while so sellers just hang tight. The inventory is going down and we're gonna start seeing those prices go up. We're seeing them edge up a bit but not as much as in the lower price ranges.

Active listings are at 13,819. That is down from March just about 1%, so not too much, and 13.7 percent from last year. So significantly, keeping that same pattern that we've seen since the beginning of the year. Closed listings are at 7,832 which is down 4.5% from March and 4.3% from last year at the same time. Days on market, that's how long it takes to sell your house, is 63 days right now. It's down from 68 days in the month of March which is five days quicker that houses are selling. Down from 72 days last year at the same time. All of these are following seasonal trends that we're going to talk about in a minute. Appreciation for the last 12 months is at 7.7%. It's very, very strong still because of the supply and the demand. 

This week I also wanted to talk about the seasonality. While homes will sell all year long and buyers buy all year long, we do see peaks and valleys through the year.This chart shows a few different things but don't get lost because I'm gonna guide you through it.

The Green Line represents have active listings which peak early in the year. You see that pattern year over year and then steadily the active listings decline into the mid summer and then. The severity of increases and decreases will depend on what's happening in the market but the pattern is similar every year. It's easy to see just how low much lower supply is now compared to the previous years. As mentioned before, we're down 13.7% from last March. The seasonality of active listings impacts how long it takes to sell a house.

The orange line represents the average days on market or how long it takes to sell a home. Days on market are highest earlier in the year because that's when supply is the highest. Then DOM are lowest during the summer when the supply is lowest. It takes less time to sell in the summer, on average. That's always on average.

The blue line represents a number of closed listings. You can see that the pattern is the opposite of what you are seeing with active listings. There are the least amount of closings in the early part of the year and there are the most amount of closings in the spring and early summer. The number of closed listing typically drops throughout the fall, bottoming out in January. January's drop is due to the disinterest that we see from buyers and sellers during the winter holidays. Remember, people are taking their houses off the market. They're not interested in selling during the holidays. Therefore, if you think about a 45 day close, you're gonna see the impact of that in January. That's why closings are always so low in January.

So, what does this mean to you if you're a buyer or seller of real estate. I want to remind you we're always buying and selling homes any time of year. You can still buy or sell your home, however, it's always good to understand what your competition looks like whether it's buyers or sellers. 

If you are selling in the early part of the year or in that short period of time in the fall, you're going to have the most competition. There are the most active listings, so you really want to make sure that you keep that in mind when you're going on the market. Make sure your home is ready. The average seller is going to have to wait a little bit longer because you are competing with more sellers and there are more listings to sell at that time. If you selling in the summer, you're going to have the least competition but you also have the least amount of buyers. 

If you're a buyer in the early part of the year and secondly in the fall that short period of time where we see active listings peak, you're going to have more homes to choose from . In the summer there's going to be more  competition because there's less listings. You're going to want to act fast for those really good homes.

Thank you very much for watching the video. If you know anyone that is interested in knowing about the seasonality, please pass this along. Also, if you know anyone who's looking to buy
or sell we'd love to be your Realtors! We can be found with a lot of other videos on all the social media sites at GIordanoSellsAZ.

Thank you for watching and have a great day.


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